On February 3, Bitcoin showed clear signs of structural weakening following a series of pullbacks. Recent deterioration in on-chain metrics, the loss of key technical levels, and macroeconomic uncertainty have collectively dampened expectations for a near-term rebound. In the absence of clear catalysts, the risk of continued downside over the coming weeks to months is increasing.
Price Action: Accelerated Decline in Thin Liquidity
From January 28 to January 31, Bitcoin fell by approximately 15%, with losses accelerating over the weekend amid relatively thin liquidity. The largest single-day drop approached 10%, further reinforcing a cautious market stance.
On-Chain Signals: Rising Unrealized Losses, Slowing Sell Pressure
As prices retreated, roughly 46% of Bitcoin supply is now held at an unrealized loss. Following January’s monthly close, Bitcoin recorded four consecutive monthly declines for the first time since 2018. Historically—excluding the unique 2017 cycle—when Bitcoin retraces 40% from an all-time high (ATH), drawdowns often extend beyond 50% within the subsequent three months.
Applying this historical pattern implies a potential 50% retracement from the current ATH, corresponding to a price near USD 63,000.
Key Price Zones: Supply Void and Long-Term Averages
On-chain cost basis distribution indicates a notable supply void between USD 82,000 and USD 70,000, suggesting low historical trading density and a higher probability of price probing lower to test demand.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s Realized Price stands near USD 56,000, while the 200-week moving average is around USD 58,000. In prior cycles, both levels have repeatedly served as critical medium- to long-term support, often aligning with cyclical market bottoms.
Notably, while there is no clear evidence of aggressive accumulation by whales or long-term holders, the pace of profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed materially, indicating that sell pressure has not worsened further.
Macro and Narrative Factors: Limited Near-Term Catalysts
From a macro standpoint, Bitcoin has recently failed to participate in the “currency debasement hedge” narrative alongside gold and silver, which weighs on sentiment. Meanwhile, although structural crypto legislation (such as the CLARITY Act) could be supportive over the medium to long term, its near-term passage probability has declined. Even if enacted, its positive impact is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than Bitcoin itself.
Absent fresh macro or policy catalysts, Bitcoin’s price is increasingly driven by technical structure and capital behavior.
Risk Monitoring and a Compliance-Oriented Perspective
During market downturns, on-chain capital flows, abnormal address behavior, and concentration shifts tend to become more pronounced. For institutions and professional participants, continuous monitoring of on-chain risks through a compliance lens can help clarify potential exposures in volatile conditions. Tools like Trustformer KYT, which focus on on-chain risk analytics and transaction behavior monitoring, enable observers to assess fund pathways and risk signals beyond price movements, providing additional inputs for risk control and long-term decision-making.
Conclusion
Taken together—across technical indicators, on-chain data, and macro factors—Bitcoin still faces a meaningful probability of further downside over the coming weeks to months, potentially toward USD 70,000, or even a test of the Realized Price and 200-week moving average zone. Historically, these areas often align with cycle lows and may present more attractive entry windows for investors with a long-term horizon.