On January 22, ARK Invest stated in its latest Big Ideas 2026 report that Bitcoin, decentralized finance (DeFi), and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) are gradually shedding their identity as purely “crypto-native narratives” and are instead emerging as functional components of global capital markets. This shift is viewed as a central direction for industry development beyond 2026.
ARK notes that digital assets are transitioning from fringe innovations to financial instruments increasingly absorbed by institutional investors and mainstream capital systems.
Bitcoin: Deepening Institutional Adoption
The report projects that by 2030, the total size of the digital asset market could grow to approximately USD 28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for around 70%, corresponding to a market capitalization of roughly USD 16 trillion. The primary drivers of this growth include sustained capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and the adoption of Bitcoin by corporations as a long-term reserve asset on their balance sheets.
Data indicates that U.S. ETFs and publicly listed companies currently hold approximately 12% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. This share has risen significantly compared with early 2025, reflecting a structural shift in Bitcoin’s role within institutional investment portfolios.
DeFi: Value Creation Shifts Toward the Application Layer
ARK highlights that the value creation dynamics within DeFi are undergoing a notable transformation. Unlike earlier phases that centered on base-layer blockchains and infrastructure, recent growth has been driven primarily by application-layer activity. In 2025, DeFi applications generated an estimated USD 3.8 billion in aggregate revenue, with some lightweight protocols approaching— or even matching— traditional fintech firms in terms of operational efficiency and asset management productivity.
This trend suggests that DeFi is gradually moving beyond its characterization as “experimental finance” and beginning to converge toward more sustainable business models.
Rapid Expansion of RWA Tokenization
With respect to real-world asset tokenization, ARK estimates that the total value of tokenized RWAs could reach USD 11 trillion by 2030. In 2025 alone, the size of this market segment grew to approximately USD 19 billion, driven in large part by the on-chain migration of traditional assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold.
As the scale of on-chain assets expands, the auditability of transactions, settlement processes, and asset transfers is becoming an increasingly important consideration for institutional participants.
Regulatory Clarity as a Key Variable
Multiple contributors cited in the report emphasize that the regulatory environment will be a decisive factor in determining whether digital assets can achieve large-scale mainstream adoption. The implementation of custody rules, compliance requirements, and investor protection mechanisms will directly influence the pace at which Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenized assets expand globally.
Against this backdrop, continuous and structured analysis of on-chain transaction behavior and fund flows is gradually becoming a foundational capability bridging innovation and regulation. As these frameworks mature, the boundary between digital assets and traditional capital markets may be further reshaped.