Capital Flows and Short-Term Sentiment Shifts
Over the past 12 hours, the BTC market has shown a relatively clear signal of net inflows from major capital. Large buy orders totaled approximately USD 148 million, significantly exceeding large sell orders of around USD 109 million, resulting in a net inflow of roughly USD 39.32 million. This suggests that some institutional or large-scale participants are inclined to build long positions within the current price range.
However, from the perspective of overall trade structure, general trading volume has not expanded in tandem. Market participation remains relatively cautious, with capital activity concentrated primarily in a limited number of large transactions rather than broad-based engagement.
Price Structure and Moving Average Resistance
Despite the mildly bullish signals from capital flows, price action continues to face constraints from key moving average systems. BTC is currently trading below both the EMA24 and EMA52, with short-term moving averages exerting clear resistance against rebound attempts. At the same time, overall trading volume has declined to roughly 40% of its recent average level, reflecting a persistently strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
In the absence of volume expansion, the sustainability of any upside breakout above these moving average resistance levels remains uncertain.
Divergence in Technical Indicator Signals
From a technical indicator standpoint, both KDJ and MACD have formed golden cross patterns on shorter timeframes, indicating a partial recovery in short-term momentum and providing a basis for a technical rebound. Nevertheless, the EMA system as a whole remains in a bearish alignment, and the medium-term trend has yet to show any substantive reversal.
This divergence among indicators highlights the ongoing tension between short-term trading dynamics and broader trend assessments, suggesting that price action may continue to repeatedly test the balance between bullish and bearish forces around key levels.
Key Areas to Monitor Going Forward
Taking capital flows and technical structure together, the current market phase appears closer to probing accumulation by major players rather than the onset of a sustained trend. The key factors to watch next include:
First, whether large-capital inflows can persist and evolve into structurally expanding volume;
Second, whether price can decisively reclaim key EMA levels and successfully complete a pullback confirmation.
Throughout this process, continuous monitoring of large transaction behavior and short-term structural changes will help identify potential trend inflection points at an earlier stage. On-chain and trading behavior monitoring tools such as Trustformer KYT can provide additional perspective in detecting abnormal capital concentration and evolving risk conditions.