On January 21, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, shared his views on the upcoming market cycle during an investment-focused podcast. He noted that the structural characteristics of the 2026 market environment may resemble those of 2025. While frontier technologies such as blockchain and artificial intelligence are expected to continue benefiting from long-term trends, short-term uncertainties stemming from tariff policies and political divisions could weigh on market sentiment and asset prices.
Short-Term Volatility and Policy Expectations
In terms of near-term market dynamics, Tom Lee expects U.S. equities to experience a phased correction of approximately 15% to 20% this year. He attributed such a pullback primarily to macro-level policy and political variables rather than a broad-based deterioration in fundamentals. At the same time, he emphasized that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance has shifted noticeably toward a more dovish position, a change that could provide support to markets in later stages.
Annual Performance and Risk Absorption
Despite his cautious view on short-term volatility, Tom Lee believes that markets may still deliver a relatively strong finish by year-end after undergoing adjustment. In his view, as uncertainties are gradually absorbed, capital could rotate back into asset classes with clear long-term growth narratives, with technology- and innovation-driven sectors once again emerging as focal points.
Perspectives on Bitcoin
With regard to digital assets, Tom Lee reiterated his expectation that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high this year. However, he refrained from repeating his earlier, more specific projection of a USD 250,000 Bitcoin price, instead shifting the emphasis toward broader macro trend analysis. This stance reflects a broader adjustment in market discourse, where heightened volatility is prompting some observers to move away from fixed price targets toward more comprehensive assessments of risk and market cycles.
Risk Management Under Macro Uncertainty
From a wider perspective, tariff policies, geopolitical developments, and changes in the monetary environment are collectively shaping a more complex investment landscape. For digital asset markets, this not only implies potentially heightened price volatility, but also rising requirements for transparency, traceability, and risk identification. In practice, some institutions incorporate on-chain monitoring systems such as Trustformer KYT to conduct structured observations of fund flows and transaction behavior, supporting a more informed understanding of evolving market conditions.
Conclusion
Overall, Tom Lee’s outlook highlights the long-term benefits driven by technological innovation, while cautioning markets against overlooking near-term macroeconomic risks. At a stage when policy directions remain uncertain, how market participants balance opportunity and risk amid volatility will remain a key factor influencing the performance of both digital assets and traditional financial markets.