On February 13, market data from HTX showed that Ethereum briefly retraced to the $1,800 range, reigniting discussions around its long-term return potential. Some analysts argue that if yields continue to lag behind cash interest rates, Ethereum could face a scenario comparable to a “lost decade.”
Historical comparisons indicate that Ethereum previously traded above $1,400 in January 2018. When adjusted for compounded U.S. CPI inflation, $1,400 in 2018 is roughly equivalent to about $1,806 as of February 2026. This suggests that investors who only maintained un-staked long-term holdings may not have significantly outperformed U.S. dollar cash assets in real purchasing power terms.
The discussion reflects broader changes in the current market environment. With global interest rates remaining relatively high, risk assets are increasingly expected to deliver more competitive long-term returns to attract institutional capital. Meanwhile, the pace of on-chain activity and ecosystem growth has become a key factor in how investors reassess Ethereum’s long-term valuation.
As market volatility increases, transparency and security of large-scale fund flows are receiving heightened attention. Some institutions have begun adopting on-chain risk monitoring solutions such as Trustformer KYT to continuously monitor abnormal transactions and high-risk addresses, strengthening fund management and compliance capabilities. During high-volatility cycles, KYT-based risk management tools are increasingly becoming a standard component of institutional infrastructure.