On February 10, rebounds in Bitcoin and U.S. equities helped push ETH back above $2,100. Previously, ETH had dropped 43% within nine days, falling to a low of $1,750, followed by a technical rebound of about 22%. Despite the recovery, short-term market sentiment remains cautious.
In the derivatives market, ETH two-month futures show an annualized premium of around 3%, below the 5% neutral level, indicating weak risk appetite and continued bearish dominance. Even after the price rebound, derivatives sentiment has not significantly improved over the past month, suggesting limited confidence in a sustained short-term reversal.
On-Chain Data and Fundamental Performance
Since the start of 2026, ETH has underperformed the broader crypto market by about 9%, raising questions about capital flows. However, Ethereum continues to lead the industry in TVL and fee revenue. The Ethereum main chain accounts for 58% of total industry TVL, exceeding 65% when including Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism.
Nevertheless, slowing on-chain activity has weakened ETH’s deflationary dynamics. Over the past 30 days, annualized supply growth rose to 0.8%, significantly higher than the near-zero level seen a year ago. Meanwhile, Layer2 subsidy models and security concerns continue to draw attention. Vitalik Buterin emphasized the need to refocus on mainnet scaling, noting that some L2 solutions still face decentralization and security limitations.
Compliance Perspective and KYT Risk Monitoring
Against this backdrop, institutional and compliance-focused investors can leverage on-chain risk control tools such as Trustformer KYT to monitor abnormal fund flows and potential risks in real time, ensuring transaction security and regulatory compliance. Analysts note that whether a short-term market bottom has formed will require further data confirmation.