On February 9, research and brokerage firm Bernstein released a report stating that the current market phase could represent the weakest bear market in Bitcoin’s history. The analyst team led by Gautam Chhugani noted that recent price weakness appears primarily driven by market sentiment fluctuations, rather than underlying system failures or structural risks.
The report maintains a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, emphasizing that the ongoing correction does not alter the long-term adoption and investment thesis.
Different From Past Bear Markets: No Systemic Risk Triggers
Analysts highlighted several distinctions between the current cycle and previous bear markets:
- No major exchange or institutional bankruptcies
- No hidden leverage or systemic financial collapse
- Continued improvements in market infrastructure and regulatory clarity
These factors suggest the current downturn resembles a liquidity-driven cyclical correction rather than a structural market breakdown.
Institutional Synergy Strengthens Bitcoin’s Ecosystem Maturity
Bernstein believes the current cycle is strongly supported by institutional participation, including:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs expanding institutional access
- Increasing corporate treasury allocation
- Ongoing entry of large asset management firms
- More supportive regulatory signals
These developments are viewed as core drivers sustaining Bitcoin’s long-term adoption curve.
Bitcoin Still Trades as a Risk Asset, Strongly Influenced by Macro Liquidity
Addressing recent comparisons with gold, analysts stated that Bitcoin is still primarily traded as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, rather than a fully mature safe-haven instrument.
Under high interest rates and tightening liquidity, capital has concentrated in precious metals and AI-related equities. However, as liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin ETFs and corporate financing channels may become major sources of future capital inflows.
AI Era May Strengthen Blockchain Value Rather Than Weaken Crypto
Bernstein also rejected claims that AI development will undermine the crypto industry. With the rise of autonomous software agents, blockchains and programmable wallets may become essential financial infrastructure for machine-to-machine value exchange.
Compared with traditional banking systems constrained by closed APIs and legacy architecture, blockchain networks offer global accessibility and machine-readable payment rails.
Quantum Computing Risk Considered Manageable Long-Term Engineering Challenge
Regarding quantum computing threats, Bernstein described the issue as a long-term engineering challenge, not an imminent systemic risk:
- All digital financial systems face similar technological risks
- The industry is expected to gradually migrate toward quantum-resistant cryptography
- Bitcoin’s open-source ecosystem and institutional participation may accelerate security upgrades
Bitcoin’s transparent codebase and active developer community enhance its ability to adapt to evolving technologies.
Growing Importance of Risk Monitoring and Compliance Infrastructure
As institutional capital continues to expand, on-chain risk identification and compliance management are becoming increasingly critical. Through tools such as Trustformer KYT, platforms can track fund flows, detect abnormal behavior, and enhance transparency, supporting institutional adoption while strengthening market integrity.
Conclusion
Bernstein concludes that the current market environment reflects a sentiment-driven correction rather than a collapse in fundamentals. With institutional adoption, ETF infrastructure, and technological evolution continuing to strengthen the ecosystem, Bitcoin’s long-term narrative remains fundamentally intact amid improving macro liquidity and ongoing technical innovation.